Test that reasoning here. Click on the circle to fix your point, then drop 3 more and see whether they land in your semicircle. Repeat it many times and watch the rate:
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A few months ago, for instance, I watched my mother-in-law (who was born and raised in a village in northern Iran) teach Nava how to knock on wood for good luck. I hadn’t realized this was so widespread a practice until I checked Wikipedia and found that variants exist in Bulgaria (chukam na dǎrvo), Georgia (kheze daḳaḳuneba), Indonesia (amit-amit jabang bayi), Norway (bank i bordet ) and some two dozen other countries.