A smaller but still concerning impact would be a scenario such as a “Great Recession for white-collar workers.” During the 2007-2009 Great Recession, unemployment rates doubled from 5% to 10% in the US. Such a doubling in the top quartile of exposure would increase its unemployment rate from 3% to 6%. This should be visible in our analysis as well. Note that our core estimate is based on differential changes in the unemployment rate in the exposed group compared to the less exposed group. If unemployment increased for all workers in parallel, we would not attribute this to AI advancements that still leave many tasks unaffected.
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In the best scenario, removing a feature, like e.g. the Dispatching Firmware responsibility from our example, could be as easy as removing modules which are responsible for it, in our example it would be: “FirmwareDispatcher” and “FirmwareDispatcher.Infra” (and their wiring in the Entrypoint module).
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The rapid climb didn’t happen overnight. Interest costs have surged due to a one-two punch: the federal debt load has ballooned by trillions, while interest rates climbed sharply from near-zero post-pandemic lows. As a share of the economy, interest costs have doubled from 1.6% of GDP in 2021 to a record 3.2% in 2025. Today, the government already spends more on debt interest than on Medicaid or the entire national defense budget, programs Americans viscerally feel and politically fight over. Yet the interest line item draws comparatively little outrage.