There’s just one hitch: the system still needs guinea pigs. Even the best weather models can’t pinpoint where clear-air turbulence will occur. So the NCAR programs continue to rely on firsthand reports from planes that have already been tossed around. New technologies could change that in coming years. A plane equipped with a lidar sensor—which uses lasers to detect much finer particles than radar can—could pick up on turbulence even in a cloudless sky. But lidar systems are still too bulky and expensive to fit into a plane’s nose cone. And the government and the airline industry have been slow to invest in improving them. For now, the best hope for a flight heading into turbulence might be to program the plane itself to ride the bumps.
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And that figure rises to about 80% for older churches.
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Struyven’s calculations come as economists are surveying the damage that President Donald Trump’s Operation Epic Fury is doing to the U.S. economy. Penn Wharton Budget Model Director Kent Smetters previously told Fortune that he estimates a wide range of outcomes, including damage to the U.S. economy as high as $210 billion. Smetters offered one note of caution about how war costs are typically framed. “One problem I have with cost-of-war calculations is that they really do ignore the counterfactual,” he added. “If Iran really did get a nuclear weapon, then we might have spent a lot more on military and even repair of cities later on.”